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Is the Carbon Tax Finished?

March 28, 2012

The following is an extract from Robert Gottliebsen’s article “Gillard’s Perfect Storm“…

The backroom people in the Labor Party must now realise that a series of almost irreversible forces are combining to increase the danger of an Anna Bligh style disaster if a federal election is held around the scheduled date late in 2013.

The first is, of course, the government’s carbon tax position.

Most businesses I talk to say the government underestimated the effect of the tax but its impact is really academic – Australia wide retail power prices are set to rise a massive 37 per cent between 2010-11 and 2012-13, including a 41.7 per cent rise in New South Wales.

Then we will have the mining tax. On the basis of current iron ore and coal prices the mining tax will yield nothing like current Treasury estimates.

By 2013 we will know whether the government was right or wrong.

If it’s wrong the government will look very silly because it spent revenue that was not there.

The chances of a carbon tax lasting much longer than the first half of 2014 are becoming remote.

The mining tax actually does not matter because unless we have a boom it does not raise worthwhile money.

 

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47 Comments leave one →
  1. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 3:29 pm

    Reb

    The MRRT is being implemented by most countries that have mining. This is why it is fast becoming a non issue. Almost every country in the world is realising that its citizens deserve a bigger share of the profits of a non renewable resource.

    In regards to the Carbon Tax. here is what GE one of the biggest companies in the world had to say.

    “Mr Rice said GE, which made the nuclear power plant reactors at Fukushima and was heavily involved in renewable energy, had long believed in a trading mechanism to reduce carbon emissions and encourage the development of new technologies.

    It was courageous for the Federal Government to move before the rest of the world in introducing a price on carbon emissions, he said.

    “I applaud the Australian Government for having the courage to go through with it because I think over the long run, the world is going to be better served if there is a cost associated with the production of carbon,” Mr Rice told ABC Television.

    “It takes gutsy politicians and so we applaud the Australian Government, the Prime Minister for following through.

    “It takes leadership and if you wait for the world to act in unison, it will never happen.”

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/australian-carbon-tax-gutsy-power-firm-says/story-e6frg2qc-1226309969551

    The carbon tax is correct, the rest is fear mongering and politcial opportunism supported by what is fast being shown to be, not only biased, but a corrupt media as well.

    When climate change is more decisively proven and humans lives and lifestyles suffer as a result, I am glad I will have been on the side of supporting urgent action, than those who are grinding to a halt investment in renewable energy sources simply in the name of profits.

  2. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 3:40 pm

    “It takes leadership and if you wait for the world to act in unison, it will never happen.”

    That statement is absolutely true … Shane … if the world acted in unison we could rid the world of poverty, starvation, diseas, wars …. but we never have …

    Even the UN is often more damaging than helpful …

  3. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 4:07 pm

    TB

    So true and while I am not Julia;s greatest fan and supported Kevin Rudd, Julia is leading.

    Tony Abbott on the other hand is not leading but rather reacting. Reacting in the most negative way possible and only reacting like this because the robber barrons want him to.

    If Rupert Murdoch, Clive Palmer or Gina Rinehart had an epiphany tonight and suddenly decided tomorrow that global warming was accelerated by human activity and we need a carbon pricing scheme to save the planet, then I have no doubt Tony Abbott would have an arch angel visitation overnight and change his mind as well.

    To be influenced by wealth rather than peer reviewed scientists shows his lack of independent decision making.

  4. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 4:15 pm

    “Tony Abbott on the other hand is not leading but rather reacting. Reacting in the most negative way possible and only reacting like this because the robber barrons want him to.”

    Very true..

    But his shrill opposition to everything the government does is beginning to look absurd.

    Will he really dig up the NBN now that it’s about to be delivered to thousands of households?

    Will he really tear up the Future of Financial Advice reforms, particularly given that the industry has in fact welcomed the reforms? (And they are now in fact law.)

    Will he really scrap the carbon tax at a cost of millions to business who will have been accustomed to the new system for some 18 months, if and when the Coalition wins the next election?

    He’s just an empty wind-bag, the “resident nutter” as Paul Keating said.

  5. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 4:33 pm

    My hope is that the new legislation/projects CT, MRRT, FFA, NBN and the other 200+ laws will be well and truly operating by the time the next election swings around … a week is a long time in politics … 18 months is almost infinity …

    I really don’t mind who runs the show … but not the Mining Robber Barons, Media Robber Barons in particular … nor any other Robber Barons … and dickwits who don’t know ADSL from wi-fi …

  6. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 5:51 pm

    HEAR HEAR TB!

    Even listening to Malcolm Turnbull just a short while ago on the ABC, the only criticism he could think of about the rollout of the NBN is that it’s a bit behind schedule.

    I suspect that Malcolm is privately supportive of the NBN but just toeing the company line. He knows how the technology works, and he would know that the Opposition’s can and string alternative is pure nonsense.

  7. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:12 pm

    Reb

    Malcolm is the logical leader of the Liberals in my opinion. Tony Abbott took the leadership by stealth and opportunity with 1 missing vote and only won by 1 vote.

    He is controlled by the extreme right wing of the party and as such is unable to have his own opinion, should it differ from the robber barrons.

  8. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:22 pm

    I’d consider voting for a party led by Turnbull … my only reservation would be his front bench!

  9. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:22 pm

    Reblogged this on Blogocrats.

  10. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:24 pm

    er, sreb, what does Reblogged mean? at top o’ page …

  11. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:25 pm

    I think I just found out …

    No remote controlled bombs I could stumble into, is there?

  12. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:32 pm

    “er, sreb, what does Reblogged mean? at top o’ page …”

    I don’t know, but can only conclude that this is what happens when “older Australians” are let loose with technology they don’t fully understand.

    😉

  13. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:35 pm

    (I just re-read Gottliebsen’s article – I read it when it was first delivered to my email inbox)

    Gottliebsen coul be right but there are still guesses and variable that could make him wrong … the crystal balls belong to all of us … he’s no expert seer ..

    If I was a Mexican I’d want to know why NSW power is going to increase by 47% though!

    Power up here in the Deep Northis silly but that’s ridiculous …

    The ALP need to get rid of all their current “advisors” and engage a really top notch PR business … from now until the election … they really do have a lot of work to do!

  14. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:37 pm

    I don’t know, but can only conclude that this is what happens when “older Australians” are let loose with technology they don’t fully understand.

    I keep telling you its just a number, stop putting yourself down …

  15. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:37 pm

    “Malcolm is the logical leader of the Liberals in my opinion.”

    Strongly agree, and he would destroy Labor at the next election.

    Heck, he’s even more progressive on popular societal issues like marriage equality than Gillard is…!!

    Whereas Abbott, Hockey and Pyne are just rusted on to the neo Nazi backwards politics espoused by the likes of Abetz, Howard, Andrews, Ruddock, and Morrison…

    They’re actually a fkn disgrace of a so-called “party”.

    But the fact that they’d win an election tomorrow says a lot about the Australian psyche…

  16. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:48 pm

    But the fact that they’d win an election tomorrow says a lot about the Australian psyche…

    Mmmm … that bothered me on the weekend – it was last weekend wasn’t it? (JJ)

    The only way I could rationalise such a massive landslide is that voters couldn’t be sure we would not have another hung parliament … and made bloody sure!

    The local elections on 28th April will be interesting … I don’t know about other states but local councils can’t make law (ie bylaws) in Queensland without State Government approval … Brisbane already has a Liberal council …

  17. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:53 pm

    I agree he would destroy the ALP at the moment if he was leader and there was an election.

    Pyne makes me cringe in question time, which has been reduced to an absolute joke by the opposition. However I am impressed with Peter Slipper as speaker. He has been doing a great job and not putting up with crap from either side, which has finally made the opposition temper their yelling and abuse.

    The ALP need to go back to what they stood for, they need to point out facts such as most people would have absolutely no super at all if it was not for the ALP. That is not some super but absolutelyt none. So ridiculous comments by the likes of Clive Palmer talking about labor making people poorer is just utter lies.

  18. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 6:54 pm

    The only way I could rationalise such a massive landslide is that voters couldn’t be sure we would not have another hung parliament … and made bloody sure!

    By that, I mean that ALP voters wanted to send a message but I suspect not to the extent they did …

  19. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:02 pm

    The ALP need to go back to what they stood for …

    In so many ways, Shane, but how does that happen when people are not in large family groups the way they were … unions are not attracting numbers anymore … mainly because of the me, me society we now live in … individuals will always suffer more than teams (or even groups) of people working towards a common goal …

    In fact that’s the real problem with the ALP (and Unions) there is no common goal (except individual power, money and control) …

    Its all about money these days … not service … I retired early 59 because I provided what my clients wanted – service – other consultants that began their businesses before me are still working – because they charged a higher daily rate than me … but didn’t get as much work … turnover rather than quick rich! What a Myth …

  20. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:03 pm

    “.. ridiculous comments by the likes of Clive Palmer talking about labor making people poorer is just utter lies.”

    HEAR HEAR!!

  21. armchair opinionator permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:08 pm

    The chances of a carbon tax lasting much longer than the first half of 2014 are becoming remote.

    I don’t understand why people have such a problem with a carbon tax. We had a short lived protest pre GST but hen everything settled down again. Why is there such a concern when most Australians are doing very well, wages up etc. Australians are NOT doing it tough. There is a huge disconnect IMO and the people squealing the most are those who are doing better than the average person. Why is doing the right thing by the next generations and our environment considered optional, it is our duty as citizens of the country.

    Where is the outcry about Tony Abbott’s nanny state, taxpayers paying for the private nanny housekeeper/cleaner choices of the wealthy earners? Where is the outcry about placing more value upon children of the wealthy than those of poorer people.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/03/28/abbotts-nanny-state-could-expose-kids-to-lesser-levels-of-care/

    Why bother taxing people if it is just going to be handed back in middle class bribes?

    On ‘The Drum’ just now, Tony Abbott caught saying “germaine greer was right about something” (emphasising the ‘germ’ in her name – hawhawhaw what a blow to the fems brigade!). His sexism in politics once more glossed over as refreshing honesty by one commentator (spare me). Why is this acceptable in someone who has ambitions to lead the country? As was said in the drum, no male politician would have a ‘fat bum’ mentioned.

    If this is the best of our political talent and debate on offer it just makes me despair about Australian society in general.

  22. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:09 pm

    “The ALP need to go back to what they stood for”

    True. But there’s only a precious few who stoically champion what Labor once stood for. Doug Cameron in particular springs to mind.

    But now, Gillard is just a puppet to the right wing factions who installed her.

    It’s a disgrace!

  23. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:14 pm

    TB

    I agree at the moment it is all about money but that is because the ALP ( during its terms) has allowed consolidation and manipulation by the big businesses and allowed massive market shares which should never have been allowed. The ALP became the defacto liberal party in many respects.

    At every poll people oppose the sale of government assets, yet the ALP has been the biggest initiator of the sell of of our major assets.

  24. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:17 pm

    Reb

    Just watched Clive Palmer at the Coolum Resort where he has paid out Hyatt and taken control.

    One of his comments was that we need to accept change and move on. Well Clive how about you accept change as in a Carbon Tax and an MRRT and move on yourself. How about you accept we have an ALP minority Federal government and move on rather than your hysteria in trying to bring down an elected government and demanding a fresh election.

    How about you pratice what you preach.

  25. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:25 pm

    “But now, Gillard is just a puppet to the right wing factions who installed her.”

    Factions need to be destroyed and buried.

  26. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:25 pm

    Shane,

    The behaviour of Clive (and the Libs) just reminds me of the time when it was announced that smoking would be banned in pubs.

    “We’ll all be ruined!” cried Clubs Australia, but bugger me if I can find one pub that actually went broke explicitly due to the smoking ban.

  27. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:34 pm

    Have you noticed what a fat bum Joe Hockey has?

    Yeah, KL, it does sound fkn stupid doesn’t it …

    (Confession, Germaine Greer, makes my blood boil … a no hoper academic with a big mouth who has next to no understanding of real people … including most women in our society … a mouth that wanders … and a list of unsuccessful relationships doesn’t help her image with me …

    (I appreciate the work she did as a Feminist in the ’60’s I was there! But her prattle is still ’60’s prattle)

  28. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:35 pm

    Reb

    I can’t think of a pub that went broke over the smoking ban either. Then again most are owned by Woolies and Coles these days. Just another concentration permitted by the Coalition and the ALP.

  29. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:39 pm

    “We’ll all be ruined!” cried Clubs Australia, but bugger me if I can find one pub that actually went broke explicitly due to the smoking ban.

    And isn’t it wonderful walking into a club (I don’t visit pubs much these days … I just realised!) and no smoke … (remember, I spent a lot of my teenage and early twenties in bands … in pubs!) …

    A bit of trivia … of all the countries that banned smoking from pubs ‘n’ clubs … who was the first?

    I think the , Blogmasta, may have a special prize for the correct answer …

  30. TB Queensland permalink
    March 29, 2012 7:51 pm

    Just went for a pitstop and walked past the TV … Today Tonight … a segment on a web site for for recipes for people with an allergy … (useful for some, but actually bought time, to flog the site) …

    … next … the 3D version of Titanic … all US$19 million of it … promoting a movie, FFS!

  31. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 8:03 pm

    I can’t bring myself to watch commercial TV these days TB.

    I’d rather rub burning hot coals into my eyes…

  32. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 8:07 pm

    I am getting the same way in regards to commercial TV but even the ABC as well.

    I seem to be gravitating to the old repeats of comedies and dramas from years ago on the additional digital channels.

    I think it is a way of reflecting back on simpler and more happy times when people actually cared about more than greed. Or maybe I am losing my marbles.

  33. reb permalink
    March 29, 2012 8:14 pm

    I know what you mean Shane…

    I tend to just watch old comedy shows on youtube, as well as documentaries online…

    This web site has a lot of good documentaries…..

    http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/

  34. shaneinqld permalink
    March 29, 2012 8:18 pm

    Thanks for the link Reb.

    Have added it to favourites.

  35. James of North Melbourne permalink
    March 29, 2012 9:21 pm

    Hockey has been called fat on this blog(or it’s predecessor) many times. And Abbott was talking jackets, not arses. I was watching in vain for Kittylitter to march on here outraged when Greer said it. But if we can sheet it home to ABBOTT!!

    But it’s different, of course, if it’s ABBOTT’S DICKTOGS!!

  36. armchair opinionator permalink
    March 29, 2012 10:14 pm

    I was watching in vain for Kittylitter to march on here outraged when Greer said it. But if we can sheet it home to ABBOTT!!

    Poor dear, I was waiting in vain for YOU to bring it up james, thought you wouldn’t be able to help yourself! But, since the subject has come up, I thought it a pretty silly comment by Greer and wondered if she was trying too hard for applause. I remember she said something another time to Julia Gillard via Q&A and she got lots of laughs and applause, I think she was trying the same again. Still, a stupid comment from a person who really should have known better.

    Confession, Germaine Greer, makes my blood boil …

    I know you don’t like her TB. I think she’s great, an Aussie icon who should be lauded for what she achieved all those years ago and she still has plenty of relevance today with her social commentary. Perhaps her success can be measured by how many Aussie men seem to hate her? 🙂

    … and a list of unsuccessful relationships doesn’t help her image with me …

    Would you be saying the same about a male? or are you just showing generational judgement?
    I don’t hold anyone’s success or failure in love against them, she is human and fallible just like anyone else. But why pray tell, are those relationship failures considered to be Greer’s fault? Grrrr! Talk about double standards.

  37. armchair opinionator permalink
    March 29, 2012 10:39 pm

    And Abbott was talking jackets, not arses. I was watching in vain for Kittylitter to march on here outraged when Greer said it.

    A bit hard when I’ve only just seen that episode of Q&A (recorded while working). I agree it was a sexist thing for Greer to say.

    But it’s different, of course, if it’s ABBOTT’S DICKTOGS!!

    Does Greer invite the cameras specifically to enhance her public image whilst parading around in dickstickers and lycra? Does Gillard?

    Abbott was talking jackets, not arses.

    Was he? how do you know?
    He knew exactly what the references were about though and he also managed to say GERMaine. Not decent of him to disparage a well regarded female like that, he sounded more like Stan Zemanek or Alan Jones (I know he’s talking to the same audience) and once again he showed his sexism, his appalling character and that he is not capable of being a statesman and bearer of high office.

  38. JAWS permalink
    March 29, 2012 11:11 pm

    Yes far too much is already owned by woollies and Coles. Bank of queensland will be next

  39. reb permalink
    March 30, 2012 7:13 am

    Welcome jaws! 😉

  40. shaneinqld permalink
    March 30, 2012 7:50 am

    Bank of queensland will be next

    It would fit well with Woolies and Coles own banking ambitions.

    If they control our Food, Fuel, Alcohol and our Money, what the hell is left. Just the Media.

    No other country on earth permits this type of concentration yet we allow this brainwashing to continue.

  41. TB Queensland permalink
    March 30, 2012 9:43 am

    G’day Jaws …

    BoQ is a odd sod bank actually because all the branches are franchised … how a bank could lose $90 million is beyond me … one bad franchisee I suppose …

    If they control our Food, Fuel, Alcohol and our Money, what the hell is left. Just the Media.

    They already control most of the pokies too … shane

    Would you be saying the same about a male? or are you just showing generational judgement?

    Generational judgement … cute turn of phrase … nah, its just that if you make public comments about relationships between men and women a three week marriage doesn’t make you an expert … saying that the relationship between daghter and mother is the sweetest thing on earth and then writing about the physical violence between her and her mother is sort of contradictory … I still believe she does more harm to male/female relationships than good …

    That’s a male conclusion based upon quite a few discussions over many years with both male and females around dinner tables, BBQ etc … very anecdotal … I confess to being a one woman bloke …

  42. shaneinqld permalink
    March 30, 2012 10:47 am

    TB

    BOQ is also odd in that it pulled totally pulled out of the broker home loan market in 2004/2005. This was the dream decision of previous CEO David Liddy who conveniently retired not that long before this announcement. He predicted that they did not need the broker market and would flourish and prosper better than the other banks with their franchise system.

    When you consider that more than 40% of all home loans are now written through the broker channel the loss to BOQ lending volumes must have been and continue to be massive, despite any positive spin on figures.

    While BOQ has suffered from the natural disasters in QLD Suncorp is in the same position but not in the same financial position.

    I think the decision by their previous CEO was a major error. Brokers are now awaiting with interest to see if the new CEO reverses that decision, especially given that Suncorp has really ramped up their dealings with brokers.

  43. armchair opinionator permalink
    March 30, 2012 1:12 pm

    … saying that the relationship between daghter and mother is the sweetest thing on earth and then writing about the physical violence between her and her mother is sort of contradictory …

    But truthful about her own life and the lives of many other daughters and mothers. She probably still thinks that despite a painful period in their lives. How many fathers and sons have had physical violence between them and gone on to repair and honour their relationship? It’s the same with women. Why is Greer to be condemned in your eyes for things that many men do without any condemnation.

    … I still believe she does more harm to male/female relationships than good …

    (wiki) “…Greer has defined her goal as ‘women’s liberation’ as distinct from ‘equality with men’, She asserts that women’s liberation meant embracing gender differences in a positive fashion, a struggle for the freedom for women to define their own values, order their own priorities and determine their own fates. In contrast, Greer sees equality as mere assimilation and “settling” to live the lives of “unfree men”.[2][3]…”

    Yeah, fancy encouraging women to live their own lives and social order (which may or may not parallel and include those of men) rather than being defined by the order of males and the entrenched power systems that they have set up to dominate and control all around them.

    nah, its just that if you make public comments about relationships between men and women a three week marriage doesn’t make you an expert …

    Her academic inquiry and best selling book on the oppression of women did. She gave voice to millions of women around the globe.

  44. TB Queensland permalink
    March 30, 2012 2:50 pm

    Why is Greer to be condemned in your eyes for things that many men do without any condemnation.

    because not all men do and because Greer deals in absolutes … her absolutes!

    The idea is for mena and women to recognise that each gender is different but that combined they make a synergistic team to tackle most problems …

    Greer is a selfish old woman seeking the limelight for ideas and concepts beyons her ken … she is a n academic with academic thoughts she has never lived in our world yet claims to know all about a utopia for women …

    Just because I’m a man it doesn’t mean that I condone ANYONE being mistreated unfairly or treated badly by ANYONE …

    What Greer does is set women against men … the same men that I used to fight in the workplace on behalf of women …

    Greer doesn’t get that its about PEOPLE with different skills, abilities, frailties and strengths …

    ie its always amused me that women are portrayed as the more caring sex … when we both know that it isn’t true … its also urban mythed that women are more insightful than men … can see through and feel another person’s emotions …

    Men are not battle and blinder and unsubtle and uncaring … that’s Greer’s “take” on her world …

    I also think that “feminista” would still be battling if people like me didn’t fight some of the issues in the workplace alongside my sisters … and later on their behalf … I didn’t have two female proteges to take two of my management position over … by accident …

    There are still many issues that are wrong for women … but Greer isn’t the answer …

  45. armchair opinionator permalink
    March 30, 2012 5:18 pm

    It’s you who don’t geddit TB

    What Greer does is set women against men … the same men that I used to fight in the workplace on behalf of women …
    Greer doesn’t get that its about PEOPLE with different skills, abilities, frailties and strengths …

    The workplace is set up for male working hours and career structures, the workplace is inflexible for female workers who have a duty of care to their children. I think instead of private nannies, the workplace should have a child care centre attached to it, wouldn’t that be good for workers?

    People…synergy…

    We’ve only just got maternity leave for gawd’s sake!
    The men don’t seem to be agitating too loudly for equality of wages for females (and this is decades down the track). They are happy to collect more and more for themselves while females are being left out of the wage equality.

    There are single people you know, not everyone is part of a family structure. If you are single and female, you really dip out. What about the childless and single males, they pay taxes too and get no taxpayer funded welfare.

  46. jaws19620 permalink
    March 30, 2012 6:13 pm

    Childless couples don’t get welfare either

  47. July 15, 2013 12:43 pm

    Very good article! We are linking to this particularly great post on our site.
    Keep up the good writing.

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