Is the Carbon Tax Finished?
The following is an extract from Robert Gottliebsen’s article “Gillard’s Perfect Storm“…
The backroom people in the Labor Party must now realise that a series of almost irreversible forces are combining to increase the danger of an Anna Bligh style disaster if a federal election is held around the scheduled date late in 2013.
The first is, of course, the government’s carbon tax position.
Most businesses I talk to say the government underestimated the effect of the tax but its impact is really academic – Australia wide retail power prices are set to rise a massive 37 per cent between 2010-11 and 2012-13, including a 41.7 per cent rise in New South Wales.
Then we will have the mining tax. On the basis of current iron ore and coal prices the mining tax will yield nothing like current Treasury estimates.
By 2013 we will know whether the government was right or wrong.
If it’s wrong the government will look very silly because it spent revenue that was not there.
The chances of a carbon tax lasting much longer than the first half of 2014 are becoming remote.
The mining tax actually does not matter because unless we have a boom it does not raise worthwhile money.