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Today in Finance: with Special Guest Star – Alan Kohler!

June 4, 2012

Presenting!

****AN EXCLUSIVE FARNHAM REPORT EXCLUSIVE FINANCE REPORT POST-BUDGET ANALYSIS FORECAST PREDICTION BULLETIN***

With special guest star – everyone’s cuddly bearer of all things financial – Alan Kohler..!

And now it’s over to Alan…

“Well it’s been a rough trot today in finance. Things were always going to start off gloomy with the Australian Share Market off to an abysmal start following offshore leads.

But fuck me if things didn’t get out of hand.  The ASX fell below the crucial 4000 points mark.  Why it is crucial remains a mystery, it is a but a number, but perhaps a psychologically crucial one for people who like nice even numbers.

By the time markets closed today some $23 billion was wiped off the Australian share market with things falling to a six-month low.  But it’s not just investors on the share market who lose.  Almost everyone’s superannuation fund will also take a hit.

But it’s not all bad news.  Mortgage owners will be in for a reprieve, with the RBA almost certainly likely to cut interest rates when it meets tomorrow.

Here’s a handy chart I prepared earlier.

Meanwhile the Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan remains unfazed, saying earlier today that the share market carnage is evidence of Australia’s “resilient economy.”

And that’s today in finance.”

 

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17 Comments leave one →
  1. TB Queensland permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:35 pm

    Bugger me, sreb, that chart is almost like the one at news.com.au! Uncanny … the wording is a bit more descriptive on yours – much better! Great job …

    The other thing that struck is that you (or AK … onya Alan … big fan mate!) used correct terminology ie “mortgage holders” rather than “homeowners” (that’s when you know when you are dealing with professionals!)

    … if your paying off a mortgage you don’t actually own it – the bank does … I can assure you that lower interst rates won’t help THIS homeowner!

    Could I ask a question, please, why is 4000 “critical” and if it reaches “0” does the sky fall in? Do we go to war with Fiji? Is it the real “end of the world 2012”? Over to you, sreb and Al … 🙂

    Thank you both for sharing your up to the minute knowledge and expertise with us plebs … just fab …

  2. TB Queensland permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:37 pm

    if your paying off

    I know … YOU’RE … 🙄

  3. JAWS permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:43 pm

    “Could I ask a question, please, why is 4000 “critical”…………”

    Around 4115 represents a major Fibonacci point.

    So a move below 4000 would represent a major breakout from the Fibonacci resistance level to a new Fibonacci resistance point.

    I trust that clarifies the matter for you

    🙂

  4. el gordo permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:45 pm

    Everyone expects an interest rate cut of at least 25 bp, but the banks have already let the RBA know they will not be passing it on in full… so they better make it 50 bp for good measure.

  5. JAWS permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:47 pm

    Actually its 4026

    From Dow Jones……..

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is down 1.9% at 3988.9 after hitting a fresh six-month low of 3987.1, tracking broad weakness in Asian markets, with most markets down over 2.0% after stocks on Wall Street tumbled Friday.

    Apart from the sustained break of major Fibonacci retracement support at 4026 on the index, the most significant development Monday has been the break of major retracement support on BHP (BHP.AU) at A$31.39.

    That puts BHP on track for a test of a potential monthly uptrend support line just below A$28.00. On the index, the break of 4026 targets the 61.8% retracement of the 2009-2010 rise, with only moderate support from the November 2011 low of 3973.8

  6. el gordo permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:49 pm

    So anyone doing this Fibonacci stuff will now be trading ‘short’?

  7. TB Queensland permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:50 pm

    I trust that clarifies the matter for you

    Awww … I wanted AK to answer … Fibonacci’s OK but isn’t Pivot Point more accurate?

  8. JAWS permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:50 pm

    Yeah…………Short of money……………..LOL

  9. TB Queensland permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:53 pm

    Wally, just a slight correction on accuracy – please refer to BHPB NOT BHP … not professional and I can assure not appreciated by BHPB!

    (A bit like saying New Guinea instead of Papua New Guinea – it leaves half of the country out!)

  10. JAWS permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:54 pm

    How about AK riding in on Henry the Horse……….?

    That could be arranged

  11. JAWS permalink
    June 4, 2012 5:55 pm

    Yeah I know but the ASX code is still BHP.

    I’ll try harder just for you………….. LOL

  12. June 4, 2012 6:03 pm

    Fibonacci? Is that like Gnocchi? Should I have red or white….?

  13. Tony permalink
    June 4, 2012 6:50 pm

    Nothing changes for me. My (self-managed) super fund will keep buying – this month, and every other month.

  14. TB Queensland permalink
    June 4, 2012 6:56 pm

    Should I have red or white….? Absolutely!

    ToSY, does that mean every second month? Sell every other month? Just askin’ … 😉

    Seriously, any SFR relying on super needs to look very closely at Fixed Interest compared to other options for long term results …

  15. Tony permalink
    June 4, 2012 6:59 pm

    You might be right, TB, but I’m still in accumulation phase. 😉

  16. Tom of Melbourne permalink
    June 4, 2012 7:34 pm

    We’re still in a pretty fair place.

    Thanks China!

  17. el gordo permalink
    June 4, 2012 10:05 pm

    The Cypriot banking system is close to collapse and has been dubbed the ‘Iceland of the south’.

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